TMF’s worst drop since 2009 was 94%
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) fell 94% from Mar 2020 to Oct 2026. It has not closed above that Mar 2020 peak since, 6.6 years later. Over the same years the S&P 500 fell as much as 34%.
That drop ranks 3rd deepest among the 12 leveraged ETFs PortfolioAutopsy tracks.
Drawdown from the last high, 2009 to now
How TMF held up in each crash
| Crash | Years | TMF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dot-com bust | 2000–02 | not trading yet | −47.5% |
| Financial crisis | 2007–09 | not trading yet | −55.2% |
| COVID crash | 2020 | −43.8% | −33.7% |
| 2022 rate shock | 2022 | −75.7% | −24.5% |
Each number is the deepest fall from a high inside that window, using daily prices with dividends reinvested.
See how TMF behaves inside your whole mix, with the worst 12 months, loss odds and crash replays. Free, no signup, and the math runs in your browser.
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What was TMF’s maximum drawdown?
TMF’s deepest fall since 2009 was 94.1%, from its high on March 9, 2020 to its low on October 5, 2026. The figure uses daily prices with dividends reinvested.
How long did TMF take to recover?
It has not recovered yet. As of October 13, 2026 it sits 93.9% below that Mar 2020 high.
Was TMF riskier than the S&P 500?
Over the same years, TMF’s worst drop was 94.1% against 33.7% for the S&P 500 (SPY), and its worst 12 months were −77.6% against −19.7%.
Compare with
Daily adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance, April 17, 2009 through October 13, 2026, dividends reinvested. Historical facts, not a forecast and not investment advice.